Scientific Method
Following some criticism last month of the Royal Gazette's tendency to trumpet the results of its online polls without making their biases clear, this week the newspaper announced its intent to start commissioning more scientific surveys of public opinion. The results of the first of these were announced today.
The poll asked two questions: do you support independence and should the issue be decided by a general election or a referendum.
61.4% of those polled said they were opposed to independence, 21.4% supported it and 17.2% were unsure. Back in May, a poll conducted by the Bermuda Sun found 66% of voters opposed and 22% in favour. While the Premier may be tempted to conclude from this that opinion is shifting his way, the two polls are actually equal within their margins of error (4.9% on the Gazette’s poll and 3.9% on the Sun’s).
On the issue of referendum vs. general election, 59.5% said a referendum should be used, while 20.1% expressed a preference for a general election. By contrast, the Gazette’s online poll last month found 62.4% in favour of a referendum vs. 31.9% in favour of a general election, strikingly similar given the new poll’s margin of error. The figures from the Sun’s May survey were 51.8% and 36% respectively. Support for a referendum may not be increasing significantly, but the popularity of an election certainly appears to be on the slide.
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Alex Scott has so far ignored the very clear message from these soundings by stating that the opposition to his plans stems from the fact that the people do not have enough information yet.
What is good is that the country can begin to understand that he does not appear to be able to listen to them, so perhaps he should be sent a more clear electoral message.
No government, PLP or UBP deserves its place if they are unwilling to yield to the clearly expressed will of the people. Certainly, no constitutionally irreversible change, like independence, should be undertaken without the people's support.
That is a basic that he should be made to understand.
Posted by jake on 26.11.04 at 18:50
Hear hear!
Posted by Tiger Bay on 26.11.04 at 19:02
The PLP leadership forget that they were elected to represent us not inform us. The claim that we need more information is insulting!! Why not give us more information about Berkeley?! Why hide so much about how goverment works and where our money goes?
The PLP must stop chasing 1970's radical dreams and better manage the Bermuda of 2004!!!!!!!!!
Posted by Cedar Hill on 26.11.04 at 19:23
I think we have like Sting's song goes...Too Much Information...about how the PLP Government refuses to listen to the voices of the people. Bermudians do not want independence rammed down their throats. The majority of voters want a referendum on Independence and as things stand at the moment- the country would vote against Independence. ^..^
Posted by big bad wolf on 26.11.04 at 20:31
That is what annoys me most. We simply will not have a vote until he is sure we will get it "right" and on his terms. It is the height of arrogance.
The Bermudian people ARE NOT subject to the Man. We do not have to resign ala Renee Webb. WE CAN FIRE HIM.
He needs to understand who the boss is in this country - the collective will of the people.
Posted by jake on 26.11.04 at 21:55
Describing these results as 'equal within their margins of error' isn't terribly scientific either, Phil.
On top of that, without knowing what 'margin of error' means you can't tell very much from this sort of data. Actually, even if you do know, you still often can't tell very much.
Posted by Sunil on 28.11.04 at 19:26
People are not overly thrilled about the idea of a referendum because the majority of Bermudians are simply not interested in independence. They don't see the point in pursuing the discussion/debate any further.
Posted by Tiger Bay on 28.11.04 at 19:35
Care to explain why, Sunil?
Posted by The Limey on 28.11.04 at 20:35
Well, Phil, if you enjoy boredom…
What these poll results plus or minus their errors give is a range of values which has a certain probability of overlapping the real frequency of opinions within the total Bermudian population. What you want to know is whether there is at least a certain probability that there has been a shift in this real frequency of opinion between the two polls.
It’s two different questions, and the answer to the first doesn’t give you the answer to the second.
You can get a vague clue though, if you make a few assumptions. So I have. It is likely that these samples are not sufficiently different that you could claim that opinion has changed with the sort of probabilities most scientists would be happy with. It is still, however, more likely to have changed than not, so ‘equal within their margins of error’ is not quite right.
(You should really be thankful I summarised this.)
Posted by Sunil on 29.11.04 at 10:02
Despite all the promises of more information, the PLP continues to dodge specific discussion of their independence plans.
The international business community -- by far the largest group of employers and generators of wealth in Bermuda -- have made their position clear:
http://www.abic.bm/news/devNewstemplatedetail.asp?ItemID=10&Lang=EN
Posted by Tiger Bay on 06.12.04 at 09:06
Having read the rather lengthy discussions on the Royal Gazette Internet poll in October and the much shorter series of comments on The Royal Gazette's scientific poll last month, I wanted to let your readers know that the story that was published in The Royal Gazette on the October Internet poll should have said that it was unscientific. That was a bad but honest mistake, and it was not a deliberate attempt to manipulate or mislead the public.
Posted by Bill Zuill on 09.12.04 at 13:44
OOPS!
Posted by shipstones on 09.12.04 at 18:32