After The Flood

Tsunamis may be a rare occurrence and Atlantic tsunamis rarer still, but after the events of the last few days, living on a low-lying island in the middle of the ocean suddenly feels slightly more precarious.

The biggest Atlantic tsunami was caused by the Lisbon earthquake of 1755, and resulted in 60,000 deaths. Its effect on Bermuda, however, is unknown. Other Atlantic tsunamis have been considerably less deadly.

In 2001 geophysicists Steven Ward and Simon Day produced a paper describing the tsunami that might result from a collapse of part of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands. According to their paper, Florida could see a tsunami 20 to 25 metres high, enough to reach 20 km inland. Their theory, disputed by the Tsunami Society, resurfaced in the Mid Ocean News earlier this year, where it prompted a heated argument between its detractors and proponents.

Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions aren't the only risks. In 1998, astrophysicist Jack Hills of the Los Alamos National Laboratory conducted an investigation into the chance of a meteor strike in the Atlantic or Pacific causing a tsunami. Hills calculated the probability of such a strike to be 2-3% in any 100-year period.

Like the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic has no tsunami early warning system. However, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) has been working to establish such a system for the Caribbean. The proposed system would cost $2.5 million and take three years to implement. Unfortunately Bermuda is not a member of CDERA and may anyway be too far out in the Atlantic to be able to benefit from the system.

Instead, it seems likely that the impetus to establish tsunami warning systems in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans will ebb with the coverage of the Asian disaster from our TV screens.

Comments

[PSoTD on 31.12.04 at 13:40]

Very interesting post - I was wondering about the Caribbean and Atlantic myself. Thanks.

[ace on 31.12.04 at 13:56]

One of the best sites for info on the Asia Tsunami I have seen to date:

http://iri.columbia.edu/~lareef/tsunami/

[big bad wolf on 01.01.05 at 09:08]

What a horrible year 2004! Won't be drinking that vintage again!It all just washed away in a sea of tears.Regarding a tsunami in the Atlantic...an earthquake generated wave probably would not be as destructive as a huge meteor hit.The meteor hit would do the business...thats how the Gulf of Mexico was created. I have these visions of huge walls of water of the Southshore and then I wake up....Not sure if its a flash back to the Poiesidan Adventure or my dreamscape shorting out! Anyway I dont like those odds for meteor hits but then it all seems pretty random at the moment. The wolf is going to run off and sit on a nice green hill and think about How lucky he is for now....Think I'll continue my Wolfy philosphy of living in the moment!...I think I'm going to listen more in 2005....so this my last post for sometime....Oh around full Moon you may hear me howling in the background.. Please join in but get your horrooos right! Hate it when the howling is off key or in minor notes..Its a bad scene at the moment and the moon is wanning ^..^ Happy 2005--Do it NOW ! Dont forget regardless who you are or where you live The wolf loves YOU !!!!!

[hotspur on 02.01.05 at 11:10]

Hhmmm… So 2% of the cost of your average new school would tell us in advance that a 25 metre wave was coming? Money well spent, I’d say.

[CB on 03.01.05 at 19:57]

But what would we actually do if we found out that a 25 metre wave was going to hit in an hour or so ??? Gibbs Hill ??

[Fraz on 03.01.05 at 21:01]

You think that's a problem? How about the fact that the speed limit is 35km/h and a tsunami could be travelling over 10 times that speed. How the heck would you outrun it without getting a speeding ticket?

[shipstones on 04.01.05 at 16:05]

Heard Ewart is building an Ark!