Losing focus

Bermudians for Referendum (BFR) started out as a group with an admirably clear aim: to have the independence debate settled by a referendum instead of a general election. They persuaded 14,008 voters, 47.5% of those who voted in the last election, to sign their petition. In September they presented it to the Government and made Premier Alex Scott look like an ass in the process. Now, however, the group seems to be losing its way.

At the end of last year they reopened their petition, to collect the additional 1,023 signatures needed to give them the support of 51% of those who voted in 2003. 51% may have a nice ring to it, but the move tarnished the success of the original petition by focusing attention on what it failed to achieve. If the extra signatures are not forthcoming, the whole initiative may come to be regarded as a failure. Moreover, even if they reach their new goal, they will still have the signatures of only 38% of the electorate. Naysayers will still be able to argue that their goals are not held by the majority of Bermudians.

On Saturday, BFR member Michael Marsh muddied the waters further. In an interview with the Royal Gazette he criticised the Premier for suggesting that a referendum might be held at the same time as, or a year after, a general election. Having a referendum at the same time was no good, he said, because independence would be clouded with other issues. Having a referendum a year after would also be unacceptable because the politicians could not be trusted to keep their promise to hold one. Instead, Mr. Marsh said that a referendum should be held before an election, and hinted that BFR might launch a new petition to that effect.

Such a move would be folly. It would destroy the consensus that BFR have built and would garner fewer signatures than the original petition. Bermudians are unlikely to appreciate being asked to sign another petition and fewer would think this one necessary. Holding an independence referendum at the same time as a general election would lump a discussion of independence in with other issues, but most voters would not be confused by the separate ballots (although the PLP would doubtless run a "Vote PLP/Yes" campaign to try to link the two). A referendum held a year after an election would simply be the standalone referendum that BFR have said they are campaigning for.

It would be better for Mr. Marsh to keep BFR focused on their core goal: maintaining the pressure on the government to have a referendum at all.

Comments

[Full Fullish on 17.01.06 at 19:56]

I agree, Bermudians are far to apathetic to sign another petition, although I'd love to be proven wrong. However, the referendum is the BFR's baby and as such they should be made in an advisory postion as to the best when and how of a referendum.

I'm very intested to see how the PLP plan on making use of a general election/referendum. If there is any sort of muddling of the two everyone should cry fowl. I thnk the more seperate the two the better. Personally I would like to see a referendum sooner than later. As I've said before, this has gone on long enough.

[SmokingGun on 17.01.06 at 20:22]

BFR should stick to keeping up the pressure on having a referendum and that's it. No need to get more votes. No need to cloud the issue. Keep it simple. 14,000 people who didn't know what they were signing says it all. The focus should stay on reminding the public that the current government will likely try to orchestrate an independence vote tied in with a vote for PLP. BFR should have confidence in the original petition and continue to badger for a referendum sooner rather than later.

[Tiger Bay on 17.01.06 at 21:43]

Referendum and election should be seperated. everyone but Alex Scott and his manipulators understands that.

[Lost in Flatts on 18.01.06 at 05:14]

They should only be seperate if you want a fair and clear vote. Which isn't what Alex Scott wants.

[It Does Matter on 18.01.06 at 07:16]

Do you all have a wealth of examples of "good governments" who would never, and have never, placed a general election anywhere near a referendum?

Please state the governments of this World who govern more adequately than the PLP. Sometimes I feel so lost in these skepticisms about Bermuda's current government. No matter how hard I look, I dont see what anybody is crying foul about. Maybe this makes me inept.

So I hope to use what you all teach me here as my enlightenment.

If you were Wayne Furbert or Alex Scott, how would you educate/promote independence in Bermuda?

[Guilden M. Gilbert, Jr. on 18.01.06 at 08:44]

It Does Matter,

"If you were Wayne Furbert or Alex Scott, how would you educate/promote independence in Bermuda?"

I think I cna sum the up for you fairly easily. Most on this blog do not want/support independence, therefore, they wouldn't even raise the topic, let alone educate or promote.

[Longtime Lurker on 18.01.06 at 09:09]

"Do you all have a wealth of examples of "good governments" who would never, and have never, placed a general election anywhere near a referendum?"

That's not the hardest question in the world.

Very recently, there were referendums all around Europe on the EU constitution that weren't linked at all to general elections.

And while I wouldn't consider them a particularly good government, I hear that the UBP held a referendum on independence in Bermuda in 1995 that wasn't linked to a general election...

[sandgrownan on 18.01.06 at 09:47]

reforenda not reforendums..sorry LL, but it annoys me!

However, Guilden is right, most here have no intention of promoting or supporting independence since it serves no practical purpose other than to massage ego. And I agree.
As for focus, or lack of it, I guess there is some merit in that view, but it does keep the issue in the public eye.

[Two Cents on 18.01.06 at 10:06]

"most here have no intention of promoting or supporting independence since it serves no practical purpose other than to massage ego"

Perhaps if there was a bigger reason for Independence other than putting Alex Scott's name down in history as being the man who "Lead Bermuda to Independence", I feel there would be more support for Bermuda's Independence.

As hard as Bermudians for Referendum have worked to show us the downside of going Independent, the Pro-Independence Group has not shown a single, solitary, reason for Independence, and until the do so, I can't see the "Pro-Independence group" gaining much more support.

[lickinalong on 18.01.06 at 10:38]

Last week I think we saw the first cracks in the PLP's determination to handle the independence question through a general election. For the first time Alex Scott went on record (reluctantly it appeared to me) as recognising that the decision should be made by a referendum. I thnk that is pretty good news.

I am not against holding the referendum at the same time as a general election except for one factor which I will explain below. I think Bermudians can differentiate the differences between an election campaign and an independence referendum campaign. Yes it would muddy the waters a bit but those waters are going to be muddied regardless of when the referendum is held. The one problem that I have with the election/referendum combo is that no-one knows when either event will happen. When is the next election? Only Alex Scott knows. When will the referendum be? Only Alex Scott knows. Not exactly a fair process. How about if Alex calls a snap election? In 3 weeks time we could also be voting on independence. Is that enough time for those who may not agree with the PLP to pull their campaign together? Of course not.

To make the process fair the PLP will need to announce the date of the next election with plenty of time to allow for meaningful debate on independence. In my view a minimum of 3 months would be required.

Overall I think the PLP have blown the independence debate by biasing the process in their favour. This is probably the one issue that Bermudians do not want handled with political gamesmanship. The PLP does not seem to understand that the more they play political games with the process, the less likely they are to achieve their dream of independence. Don't underestimate the Bermudian electorate. They knew when not to elect the PLP. They knew when to kick the UBP out of office. They knew that the PLP needed another term in office. They will know when it is time to send the PLP packing. They will also know when it is time for Bermuda to go independent.

[Denis Pitcher on 18.01.06 at 11:14]

Fair?

Let's talk about fair...

What bothers me is that politics is never fair to the people, it's only fair to the politicians.

The PLP shouldn't be allowed to call a snap election. The PLP shouldn't be allowed to ignore 49% of the electorate.

Hell, if the UBP gets voted back in neither should they. Why do we elect leaders who can place blinders on our eyes for 4-5 years and lead us down a path of their choosing? We have to take their “word” that what they say they’ll do is what they’ll do. Why?

If we want independence from anything, it should be independence from our own government. We should have the ability to pull them out of power at the will of the people, the ability to hold them accountable. The ability to make them afraid of screwing up in the eyes of the people so they don’t do it!

Their abuse of this power is despicable. It existed in the days of the UBP and it exists now in the days of the PLP. No matter what color you paint on the face of the party, people are always still people and politicians are always still politicians.

The BFR group demonstrated that our leadership doesn't speak for the people. What should their next step be? Who knows? If anything I hope they’ve gained the support of the people who won't quickly forget that our government (both parties) doesn't represent us and instead only represents themselves.

It's time they stop playing games with the future of our people and for once did what is in the people's interest and not their own. Give the power back to the people. Give the right to call a referendum and an election to the people. Don’t leave it up to the party to decide when is in their own best interests.

If we want independence, it should be independence from this colonial form of government.

That would be fair.

[SmokingGun on 18.01.06 at 11:26]

"Yes it would muddy the waters a bit but those waters are going to be muddied regardless of when the referendum is held." - lickinalong

Who do you trust? The Blind Man's going to lead us to the bottom of the sea.

[The Limey on 18.01.06 at 13:02]

lickinalong

The one problem that I have with the election/referendum combo is that no-one knows when either event will happen. When is the next election? Only Alex Scott knows. When will the referendum be? Only Alex Scott knows. Not exactly a fair process. How about if Alex calls a snap election? In 3 weeks time we could also be voting on independence. Is that enough time for those who may not agree with the PLP to pull their campaign together? Of course not.

I don't think it would matter it Alex Scott called a snap referendum/election in 3 weeks time. Most Bermudians have already made up their minds about independence. Indeed, many would probably breathe a sigh of relief at such a swift conclusion to the debate.

[wklc on 18.01.06 at 13:08]

A snap election/referendum combo would probably hurt the PLP more than the UBP regarding the independence issue. According to the polls, the majority are against independence, so a snap election wouldn't allow the PLP to convert enough voters into voting for independence. So i don't think you have to worry about that, SmokingGun.

[Denis Pitcher on 18.01.06 at 13:20]

The Limey,

"Most Bermudians have already made up their minds about independence. Indeed, many would probably breathe a sigh of relief at such a swift conclusion to the debate."

Amen on that one

[Uncle Elvis on 18.01.06 at 14:42]

"If you were Wayne Furbert or Alex Scott, how would you educate/promote independence in Bermuda?"

I think I cna sum the up for you fairly easily. Most on this blog do not want/support independence, therefore, they wouldn't even raise the topic, let alone educate or promote."

I've made it pretty clear that I'm against Independance, but I'm gonna try to take you up on that, guys.

First, I would have a PROPER, unbiased report on Independance done. Scratch that. First, I would visit blogs, canvas the streets, etc., to find out what questions and doubts people have about Independance. THEN I would have the report done. I would have objective observers as well as pro- and anti- Independance folks on the board, so that they could call each other on any bullshit that tries to get in *cough "never been a referendum deciding Independance" cough*.

Then, I would take the findings and... well... find a way to get the information into people's hands in a way that everyone could understand. Admit the bad stuff as much as promote the good stuff. Say, "Yeah, it's gonna suck for several, perhaps MANY years after, but, in the long run, here's how it will be."

Well produced, watchable TV shows on the subject would help, promoting both sides, then countering or supporting with hard facts.

Wait. Scratch that. First, I'd try to run the country properly and prove to people that I'm the one to take us Independant. Prove to them that their Government can keep them safe through the bad times. Assuage the feelings of the people against it, rather than attack them.

As has been proven here, again and again, the only way to REAL understanding is calm, rational thought. Put people at ease and they have a better chance if digging where you're coming from. Attack them and put their backs up? Yeah... you'll get a REAL receptive audience.

[lickinalong on 18.01.06 at 21:07]

Limey,
Independence is such an important issue that not only should the process be fair, it should appear to be fair. That's what the PLP do not seem to understand. If Bermuda is pushed into independence through a process that is unfair the decision will lack legitimacy and will continue to be questioned and argued for generations to come. In a sense it would be a phyrric victory for the PLP. In fact I think it may be the death knell for the PLP.

At this point I think that the PLP is a bit lost on the independence issue. They thought that the BIC would create some momentum towards independence but it has done just the reverse. I think that independence has become a really troublesome issue for them. In fact they may now lose the next election because of it. Quite frankly it serves them right. They have messed around with Bermudians and it is now our turn to mess around with them.