"The departure has already started"

While you're trying to decide whether former Premier Sir John Swan's recent warnings about international business are genuine or just scaremongering, keep in mind these comments made by a senior Bermudian reinsurance executive earlier this year:

"The threat of departure of the insurance industry has been both simultaneously exaggerated and understated.

The threat is exaggerated because the implied suggestion of a rush to the L.F. Wade International Airport is unrealistic. Inertia is a powerful force, even in business.

The threat is understated because the departure (in a relative sense) has already started. With each month, a smaller and smaller percentage of the companies' employees are to be found in Bermuda. With each month, more and more of the Bermuda companies' operations are to be found overseas."

International Advisory Services has already said that it is looking to outsource because of the difficulties of having to constantly replace work permit staff.

Butterfield Bank has set up its fund administration centre in Halifax, citing the lower cost of office space and greater availability of qualified staff.

Other companies that have opened offices in Halifax, or have plans to do so, include Flagstone Re, Citco, Olympia Capital and Marsh. I'm also aware of another international company who is outsourcing a substantial part of its Bermuda operations to Canada. I would be surprised if there aren't others that I'm unaware of, too.

Even when there are no immediate job losses in Bermuda as a result of these moves (as was the case with Butterfield Bank), there's still an opportunity cost: any new positions that these companies create will be in the new location, not here. That's no problem for Bermudians willing to relocate, but it doesn't help those who want to stay here.

The departure has already started. That's not scaremongering. That's a fact. Even if the reasons are sometimes economic rather than political, the effect on Bermuda is the same.